Inferring Physical Probabilities from Symmetries
We humans are surprisingly good at figuring out the values of the physical probability distributions attached to a system from a rather small amount of information about the physical symmetries of the system. A simple example is our inference that the probability that a toss of a fair coin lands heads is one half. More interesting and useful inferences of this sort can be found in statistical physics and evolutionary biology.
In these papers, I ask what method we use to make these inferences and why the method works so well. There is a positive and a negative part to the project. The negative part argues against the suggestion that we use a principle of indifference or some other ignorance-driven principle to make the inferences. The positive part attempts to give the correct account of the inferences.
Published Work
- Inferring Probabilities From Symmetries. Noûs 32, 231–46, 1998. (Some negative, some positive.)
Work In Progress
- Maxwell's Derivation of the Velocity Distribution: An Example of A Priori Discovery in Science? (All positive.)