Ceteris Paribus Hedges: Causal Voodoo That Works
Abstract: By prefacing a hypothesis with the words ceteris paribus, I appear to protect it from potential exceptions that I do not have the power to specify, even in principle. This paper provides a theory of ceteris paribus hedges according to which they deliver on this prophylactic promise. The theory is limited to causal generalizations; the basic idea is that causal hypotheses are intended to articulate the consequences of certain mechanisms, and that they derive some of their conditions of application from the nature of these mechanisms. What a causal hypothesis says, then, depends in part on the – perhaps unknown – nature of the mechanism whose consequences it is intended to describe. It follows from this view that the truth conditions for causal hypotheses are typically opaque to their own formulators. The paper concludes with a discussion why opacity might beneļ¬t, rather than hindering, causal investigation.
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